Three of these four CEI components improved in January, with only industrial production being virtually unchanged. The CEI’s component indicators-payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production-are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. The CEI is now up 0.7 percent over the six-month period between July 2022 and January 2023-close to the 0.6 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. increased by 0.2 percent in January 2023 to 109.5 (2016=100), after no change in December. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. Nonetheless, The Conference Board still expects high inflation, rising interest rates, and contracting consumer spending to tip the US economy into recession in 2023.” While the LEI continues to signal recession in the near term, indicators related to the labor market-including employment and personal income-remain robust so far. The contribution of the yield spread component of the LEI also turned negative in the last two months, which is often a signal of recession to come. “Among the leading indicators, deteriorating manufacturing new orders, consumers’ expectations of business conditions, and credit conditions more than offset strengths in labor markets and stock prices to drive the index lower in the month. “The US LEI remained on a downward trajectory, but its rate of decline moderated slightly in January,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. The LEI is now down 3.6 percent over the six-month period between July 2022 and January 2023-a steeper rate of decline than its 2.4 percent contraction over the previous six-month period (January–July 2022). fell by 0.3 percent in January 2023 to 110.3 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.8 percent in December. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world. Human Capital Benchmarking & Data Analytics.2023 Annual Employee Health Care Conference - New York.2023 Annual Employee Health Care Conference - San Diego.The Power of Corporate Communications: Driving Business Results.
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